Revolution Trends

Intrade just added a market for President Assad of Syria

Actually they added two markets. They've added a shorter term "leader gone" contract for most of the countries. The long term market is for Dec 31, 2011. The short ones are for mostly for Jun 30th (exception Libya where they have a Apr 30th contract).

Yemen - the market for Saleh Gone (by Dec 31) has increased dramatically. Now trades at 91.5%. The market for Jun 30th also trades around 90%. There is good volume too.

Libya - has the greatest volume with a total of 17000 contracts traded. Gadaffi gone sits at 70%, having made major gains after the UN Security Council approved the No Fly Zone (but still down from its early high of 90% - when I thought Gadaffi was gone in 3 days) .

Bahrain - Saleh is making a comeback thanks to the crackdown, and the contract is down from a high of 68% to 40%.