Revolution Trends

The Path
1. Grievance

2. Initial protest of grievance

3. Protest catches on

4. Protest really catches on

Protester Options
1) regular protesting
2) civil disobedience - disruption (shutting down the city or parts of the government)

Government Options
1) negotiate
2) ignore - sit tight
3) give in
4) pretend to give in
5) crackdown

Now if the government cracks down, this can mean
1) protesters quit - too costly to take risks and the movement dies. The state wins in the short term, but loses legitimacy in the long term.
2) public realizes the government is evil and the movement grows quickly
3) outside forces intervene (sanctions, military force, pressure, etc)

Probably right now several governments are wondering whether they should crack down.